● 武漢冠狀病毒(2019-nCoV)全球病例 及時統計(作者:Johns Hopkins CSSE)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
本次2020.02.21舊金山的行程,大家都很擔心武漢肺炎疫情是否會影響到???出遊是否會有風險???風險係數高低與否???
狗皮主編在這跟大家分享 , 如何有科學性的判定一件事情 、 並作決定 ; 礙於狗皮工作的關係 , 常常需要快速的決定一件重要的事情 , 勝敗的關鍵 , 往往都在即刻性或短暫性需要當下抉擇!!!
首先 , 事情發生了 , 當然你要知道它的嚴重性 , 包含了對本身或對整個專案的影響程度 , 發生這事情的本質 , 它的分支相關性(有點像樹狀圖那樣 , 各種因果關係) , 思考的層面會非常廣大!!!
本次 武漢冠狀病毒 , 狗皮如何判斷對出遊的可行性 方式 , 以下幾點分享給大家
● 先了解疫情分散的國家 , 以及每個國家產生疫情的狀況怎麼來的!!!
- 大家先進去專家即時統計”武漢冠狀病毒全球病例 及時統計”網頁參考一下(作者:Johns Hopkins CSSE)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6- 以大陸地區來說 > 你會看到疫情每天每天的人數都在增加 , 表是在公共空間中還有傳播者 , 自己已傳染 還是被傳染了都不知情 > 所以外出 (只要走出家門後 , 風險性就非常高) 。
- 以台灣及美國為例子 > 你會發現就2020.02.06為止台灣共11例 , 這11個例子都是境外移入 , 加上政府嚴格防疫及有效控管 , 並沒有(2…3…日就於鄉鎮縣市初現的感染案例) , 也就是說 , 公共空間中 , 被控管到沒有傳播者 , 所以是安全的 。
● 台灣搭飛機到美國 , 是否有風險呢??
- 台灣地區公共空間暫沒有隱藏病源帶原者 , 也就是妳身邊沒有不定時炸彈 , 所以是安全的 。
- 桃園機場搭聯合航空 , 起飛直達舊金山 , 因為搭乘的聯合航空是桃園舊金山雙向飛行 , 沒有前停香港 、 再飛桃園 、 最後回舊金山 ; 簡單來說就是過程中你不會友部定時炸彈在你身邊 , 所以是安全的 。
● 什麼情況下 , 行程是有危險性的!!!
- 台灣地區 或 美國本土 , 疫情人數持續增加中 + 非境外移入 (就是公共空間隱藏著 病源的潛伏者 , 一個傳一個) , 這樣的情況下 , 無論是台灣地區 、 美國地區 或 二個區域有這樣情事的產生 , 別說旅遊 , 可說是踏出家門就很危險 , 因為你不曉得定時炸彈會不會在你身邊!!!
- 行程過程中 , “高傳染風險國家的人民” , 有再持續流通!!! > 簡單來說就是 台灣地區出門 、 機場搭飛機 、 美國本土區域 你會有遇到 “高傳染風險國家的人民” (中國), 那這樣也等同於隨時會有不定時炸彈在你身邊 。 但是你在旅遊過程中不會遇到染病的 “高傳染風險國家的人民” , 因為中國已經封鎖出境 , 世界各國也封鎖中國入境 , 所以病源都在中國內部自行控管 , 所以去到哪都是安全的 。
● 什麼情況下 , 行程要中止!!!
- 台灣地區 , 公共空間有人傳人 , 持續發生 , 就不宜外出甚至旅行 。
- 美國本土 , 公共空間有人傳人 , 持續發生 , 就不宜外出甚至旅行 。
- “高傳染風險國家的人民” (中國人民)會與我們有接觸到的機會 , 就不宜外出甚至旅行 。
● 前往美國當地 , 會不會因為台灣人 = 黃種人 , 當地居民看到會因為疫情而排斥我們 、 對我們不友善!!!
- 答案是 , 機率很高 ; 因為當地人分不出台灣人 與 中國人 差異在哪!!!
- 別人對你不友善前 , 如何上別人部會對你不友善 , 總不能隨時拿出 “中華民國護照” 閃給別人看吧。
- 其實很簡單 , 拿著台灣國旗插在背包上是一個很好的作法 , 但是就人與人的觀點 , 第一個反應就是 “特別要” 把中華民國國旗插在背包上 < 屬於主動想刻意讓別人知道的情事 ; 所以狗皮認為是下下策 。
- 胸包 、 斜背包 、 帽子 , 黏貼一個魔鬼氈中華民國國旗 , 大小大概4*8 , 這就是一個很低調的方式 , 不僅不會讓接觸你的人 , 覺得你是刻意讓大家知道你是台灣人 , 又可以讓接觸你的人一看就知道你不是大陸人 。
- 所以讓接觸你的人 , 知道你是哪裡人 , 是不是很簡單呢!!!
●總結,文章於2/6發佈到2/21號出發,還有15日的時間,就看台灣地區 及 美國本土,是否有發生境內 且 持續傳染的現象產生,這也是決定行程是否終止的關鍵!!!
●假如本次旅行的路徑上,有疫情產生,就是停止出發;至於有此情式產生的後續處置作為 (包含最低損失的控管),也在狗皮主編的掌控下。
最後台灣加油,全世界一起加油!!!
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